Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost four-year conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is another twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in August produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.

The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

So, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Kimberly Bean
Kimberly Bean

A professional poker strategist with over a decade of experience in tournament play and coaching.