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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.